Transfer case
Erling Haaland Manchester City → Real Madrid
🇳🇴 NO FW 26 yrs 195 cm Current club: Manchester City
Photo: Bryan Berlin, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons
Platform prediction
Scoring formula v1.2.0 / 2026-07-22 05:13 UTC computed
See the full evidence behind this number
| Claim | Source weight | Base | Decay | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stay intent | ×1 | -12 | ×0.40 | -4.8 |
| Talks opened | ×1 | +20 | ×0.44 | +8.7 |
| Interest | ×1 | +8 | ×0.87 | +6.9 |
| Player intent | ×0.7 | +18 | ×0.90 | +11.4 |
| Talks opened | ×1 | +20 | ×0.86 | +17.1 |
| Stay intent | ×1 | -12 | ×0.88 | -11.4 |
| Interest | ×1 | +8 | ×0.93 | +7.4 |
| Personal-terms talks | ×1 | +25 | ×0.93 | +25.3 |
raw score 60.6 → sigmoid normalization → 89%.
Reporting timeline (structured claims)
Structured summaries of third-party reporting, not assertions of fact. Use "Request correction" to flag an error.
-
2026-07-18 · Personal-terms talks · Confidence: high
Real Madrid have opened personal-terms talks with Erling Haaland's camp, per Fabrizio Romano
-
2026-07-16 · Interest · Confidence: low
Real Madrid are showing interest in Erling Haaland, per Sky Sports
-
2026-07-15 · Stay intent · Confidence: high
Manchester City want to keep Erling Haaland and are weighing an extension, per David Ornstein
-
2026-07-14 · Talks opened · Confidence: high
Real Madrid and Manchester City have opened talks over Erling Haaland, per Sky Sports
-
2026-07-14 · Player intent · Confidence: medium
Erling Haaland is open to a move to Real Madrid, per Marca
-
2026-07-12 · Interest · Confidence: low
Real Madrid are showing interest in Erling Haaland, per Sky Sports
-
2026-06-19 · Talks opened · Confidence: low
Real Madrid and Manchester City have opened talks over Erling Haaland, per Sky Sports
-
2026-06-11 · Stay intent · Confidence: low
Manchester City want to keep Erling Haaland and are weighing an extension, per Sky Sports